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The International 2022: Last Chance · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincereloss 1:2
series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
swedenstrong · 18 games
56%
Puck
Pucksignature
No[o]ne · 13 games
69%
Tiny
Tiny
swedenstrong · 13 games
46%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
No[o]ne · 12 games
42%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
No[o]ne · 12 games
42%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Solo · 12 games
33%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
laise · 11 games
55%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
laise · 10 games
80%

Xtreme Gaming

Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
ELeVeN · 12 games
83%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Paparazi · 10 games
30%
Lina
Linasignature
Paparazi · 9 games
78%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
lou · 9 games
33%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Paparazi · 9 games
33%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
lou · 9 games
56%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Pyw · 8 games
63%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
ELeVeN · 8 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
533 picks · 418 bans
52%
Marci
Marci
448 picks · 678 bans
54%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
316 picks · 434 bans
45%
Puck
Puck
314 picks · 737 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
297 picks · 486 bans
49%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
281 picks · 354 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
255 picks · 846 bans
51%
Dazzle
Dazzle
247 picks · 156 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 53%
Hero pool strength51% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:19
Natus Vincere 40%Xtreme Gaming 60%
The model gave 60% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 41:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerV-Tune
49% · 30 games56% · 34 games
Shadow Fiendlou
Shadow Fiend
Leshrac
LeshracNo[o]ne
51% · 72 games59% · 137 games
Ember SpiritPaparazi
Ember Spirit
Tidehunter
Tidehunterlaise
47% · 122 games39% · 33 games
EnigmaELeVeN
Enigma
Elder Titan
Elder TitanSolo
38% · 28 games44% · 27 games
Earth SpiritPyw
Earth Spirit
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinswedenstrong
54% · 86 games48% · 107 games
DisruptorDy
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct27:35
Natus Vincere 43%Xtreme Gaming 57%
The model gave 57% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 52:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
SniperNo[o]ne
52% · 9 games30% · 37 games
Gyrocopterlou
Gyrocopter
Ursa
UrsaV-Tune
40% · 61 game55% · 100 games
Death ProphetPaparazi
Death Prophet
Enigma
Enigmalaise
50% · 88 games51% · 15 games
SlardarELeVeN
Slardar
Tusk
Tuskswedenstrong
47% · 75 games65% · 67 games
Nyx AssassinPyw
Nyx Assassin
Silencer
SilencerSolo
45% · 39 games56% · 53 games
PhoenixDy
Phoenix
Game 3prediction correct12:25
Natus Vincere 42%Xtreme Gaming 58%
The model gave 58% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 40:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeV-Tune
50% · 182 games45% · 36 games
Naga Sirenlou
Naga Siren
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendNo[o]ne
49% · 59 games46% · 219 games
Death ProphetPaparazi
Death Prophet
Timbersaw
Timbersawlaise
51% · 118 games51% · 26 games
SlardarELeVeN
Slardar
Chen
ChenSolo
65% · 90 games46% · 226 games
SnapfireDy
Snapfire
Clockwerk
Clockwerkswedenstrong
48% · 163 games51% · 105 games
Nyx AssassinPyw
Nyx Assassin
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 64%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3