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PGL Wallachia Season 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 2:0
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Xtreme Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Daze · 25 games
60%
Axe
Axesignature
pma · 24 games
79%
Kez
Kezsignature
Niku · 23 games
70%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Daze · 23 games
65%
Underlord
Underlordsignature
pma · 17 games
76%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Niku · 16 games
69%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Daze · 15 games
60%
Bane
Banesignature
Riddys · 14 games
79%

Xtreme Gaming

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
fy · 30 games
57%
Rubick
Rubick
fy · 20 games
45%
Pangolier
Pangolier
NothingToSay · 19 games
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
xNova · 15 games
27%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
NothingToSay · 15 games
67%
Doom
Doomsignature
zeal · 14 games
71%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
NothingToSay · 14 games
79%
Lich
Lichsignature
xNova · 14 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
499 picks · 300 bans
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
388 picks · 168 bans
51%
Mirana
Mirana
372 picks · 168 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
326 picks · 491 bans
59%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
310 picks · 311 bans
54%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
305 picks · 283 bans
59%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
290 picks · 490 bans
52%
Undying
Undying
275 picks · 359 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)79% vs 46%
Hero pool strength59% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head3 – 3
Model total62% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:11
Natus Vincere 57%Xtreme Gaming 43%
The model gave 57% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 41:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga Sirengotthejuice
51% · 82 games47% · 89 games
LunaAme
Luna
Huskar
HuskarNiku
53% · 71 game51% · 55 games
Enigmazeal
Enigma
Brewmaster
Brewmasterpma
52% · 119 games47% · 211 games
PangolierXm
Pangolier
Rubick
RubickDaze
47% · 410 games49% · 68 games
MiranaXinQ
Mirana
Dazzle
DazzleRiddys
49% · 110 games54% · 369 games
HoodwinkBoBoKa
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction correct30:5
Natus Vincere 55%Xtreme Gaming 45%
The model gave 55% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 24:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursagotthejuice
44% · 151 game53% · 25 games
Phantom LancerAme
Phantom Lancer
Brewmaster
Brewmasterpma
49% · 95 games53% · 330 games
Ember SpiritXm
Ember Spirit
Monkey King
Monkey KingNiku
52% · 149 games49% · 127 games
Batriderzeal
Batrider
Dark Willow
Dark WillowDaze
47% · 233 games56% · 171 game
RubickXinQ
Rubick
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernRiddys
49% · 124 games50% · 99 games
DazzleBoBoKa
Dazzle
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 62%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2