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CCT Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 2:0
series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Zero Tenacityloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Shad · 19 games
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
QBFY · 16 games
50%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Sancity · 15 games
60%
Magnus
Magnussignature
BOOM · 14 games
71%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
QBFY · 14 games
64%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Sancity · 12 games
50%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Sancity · 11 games
55%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 11 games
64%

Zero Tenacity

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
LeBronDota · 35 games
37%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
DaaD- · 33 games
52%
Lion
Lion
Pablo · 27 games
44%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Nefrit · 27 games
41%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Stojkov · 25 games
48%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 24 games
29%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Nefrit · 24 games
67%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
jAMES · 24 games
38%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
565 picks · 798 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
446 picks · 313 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
431 picks · 670 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
430 picks · 797 bans
53%
Bristleback
Bristleback
403 picks · 875 bans
55%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
392 picks · 372 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
383 picks · 1060 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
383 picks · 526 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 56%
Hero pool strength58% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:16
Natus Vincere 65%Zero Tenacity 35%
The model gave 65% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 34:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomYuragi
55% · 159 games52% · 158 games
LinaStojkov
Lina
Phoenix
PhoenixSancity
53% · 229 games49% · 331 game
Dragon KnightRetsu
Dragon Knight
Tinker
TinkerAri
53% · 56 games46% · 117 games
Night StalkerNefrit
Night Stalker
Mars
MarsBOOM
51% · 113 games49% · 46 games
RingmasterPablo
Ringmaster
Jakiro
JakiroKaori
49% · 176 games44% · 81 game
SilencerLeBronDota
Silencer
Game 2prediction correct50:35
Natus Vincere 66%Zero Tenacity 34%
The model gave 66% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 56:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaYuragi
47% · 178 games46% · 138 games
SvenRetsu
Sven
Tinker
TinkerAri
52% · 64 games55% · 190 games
BristlebackNefrit
Bristleback
Mars
MarsBOOM
52% · 250 games46% · 348 games
PangolierStojkov
Pangolier
Tiny
TinySancity
52% · 578 games54% · 337 games
ClockwerkPablo
Clockwerk
Warlock
WarlockKaori
47% · 175 games50% · 232 games
JakiroLeBronDota
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 79%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2