DreamLeague Season 30. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:0series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:0
1111loss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nemiga Gaming
Hoodwink
ariel · 30 games
Techies
ariel · 24 games
Pangolier
Covisnine · 22 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
young G · 19 games
Rubick
ariel · 17 games
Jakiro
VaniLLl · 16 games
Puckoften banned
young G · 15 games
Centaur Warrunner
Covisnine · 13 games
111
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
506 picks · 312 bans
Dark Willow
429 picks · 223 bans
Mirana
391 picks · 176 bans
Winter Wyvern
337 picks · 310 bans
Ember Spirit
321 picks · 490 bans
Centaur Warrunner
295 picks · 282 bans
Windranger
275 picks · 130 bans
Earth Spirit
273 picks · 501 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% 111
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:13
Nemiga Gaming 52%111 48%
The model gave 52% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 32:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druidbyun
Sven423
Centaur Warrunnertakizawa
DawnbreakerMikSa`
Puckyoung G
Dark Willowmrls
TechiesVaniLLl
Winter WyvernMoOz
Windrangerariel
Game 2prediction missed29:7
Nemiga Gaming 50%111 50%
The model gave 50% on 111 — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 23:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windrangerbyun
Lone Druid423
Lycantakizawa
TimbersawMikSa`
Pangolieryoung G
Gyrocoptermrls
Winter WyvernVaniLLl
TuskMoOz
Dark Willowariel
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 53%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2