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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 2:0
1w Teamloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Jakiro
Jakiro
VaniLLl · 21 game
33%
Puck
Puckoften banned
young G · 16 games
56%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
ariel · 14 games
43%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Covisnine · 13 games
54%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
VaniLLl · 12 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
young G · 11 games
45%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
ariel · 11 games
55%
Tusk
Tusk
ariel · 11 games
55%

1w Team

Tusk
Tusk
swedenstrong · 31 game
58%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Squad1x · 27 games
41%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
swedenstrong · 25 games
48%
Warlock
Warlock
Rein · 25 games
48%
Tiny
Tiny
swedenstrong · 19 games
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 17 games
76%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Rein · 17 games
53%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
SSS · 17 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
615 picks · 576 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
513 picks · 405 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
468 picks · 399 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
448 picks · 500 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
436 picks · 217 bans
57%
Warlock
Warlock
406 picks · 251 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
387 picks · 1034 bans
57%
Puck
Puck
384 picks · 884 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 59%
Hero pool strength52% 1w Team
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total71% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed37:18
Nemiga Gaming 36%1w Team 64%
The model gave 64% on 1w Team — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 41:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
Razoryoung G
48% · 172 games49% · 183 games
LeshracSquad1x
Leshrac
Monkey King
Monkey Kingselfhate
48% · 219 games59% · 71 game
Largoмистер мораль
Largo
Pangolier
PangolierCovisnine
41% · 316 games50% · 327 games
Tinyv1olent-
Tiny
Techies
Techiesariel
49% · 54 games56% · 361 game
Hoodwinkswedenstrong
Hoodwink
Disruptor
DisruptorVaniLLl
52% · 368 games49% · 187 games
PhoenixRein
Phoenix
Game 2prediction missed29:8
Nemiga Gaming 36%1w Team 64%
The model gave 64% on 1w Team — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 30:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeselfhate
51% · 224 games60% · 32 games
Lone Druidv1olent-
Lone Druid
Axe
AxeCovisnine
48% · 188 games49% · 484 games
Storm SpiritSquad1x
Storm Spirit
Void Spirit
Void Spirityoung G
45% · 284 games52% · 294 games
Tidehunterмистер мораль
Tidehunter
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkariel
47% · 415 games56% · 496 games
Shadow Demonswedenstrong
Shadow Demon
Jakiro
JakiroVaniLLl
46% · 642 games51% · 447 games
DisruptorRein
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 71%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2