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PGL Wallachia Season 4. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:1
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 0:1
4Pirateswin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Miyaoo · 10 games
30%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Shishak · 10 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Miyaoo · 8 games
25%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
ряф^^ · 8 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Shishak · 8 games
38%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
antoha · 7 games
43%
Lion
Lion
Shishak · 7 games
14%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
monodrama · 7 games
14%

4Pirates

Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
мистер мораль · 16 games
56%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
ariel · 15 games
47%
Muerta
Muerta
ariel · 14 games
36%
Sniper
Sniperoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 13 games
54%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Otaker · 12 games
58%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 12 games
42%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
ariel · 10 games
50%
Lion
Lionsignature
ariel · 10 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
491 picks · 634 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
470 picks · 401 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
463 picks · 583 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
453 picks · 553 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
436 picks · 503 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
422 picks · 789 bans
56%
Magnus
Magnus
411 picks · 923 bans
58%
Lion
Lion
397 picks · 233 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)34% vs 45%
Hero pool strength57% 4Pirates
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total61% 4Pirates
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:27
Nemiga Gaming 39%4Pirates 61%
The model gave 61% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 29:04.
Model check result
Model favorite4Pirates · 61%
Series result4Pirates 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1