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ESL One Bangkok 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingwin 1:0
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 1:0
9Pandasloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Rubick
Rubick
jesv · 16 games
31%
Batrider
Batridersignature
jesv · 15 games
60%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
aik · 13 games
46%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Shishak · 13 games
69%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
aik · 12 games
58%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
nicky`cool · 12 games
33%
Underlord
Underlord
MikSa` · 12 games
33%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
nicky`cool · 11 games
55%

9Pandas

Weaver
Weaversignature
sayuw · 10 games
60%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Solo · 8 games
63%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Alberkaaa · 6 games
50%
Undying
Undying
Solo · 5 games
20%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Alberkaaa · 4 games
75%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
DarkLord^ · 4 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Solo · 4 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
DarkLord^ · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
432 picks · 548 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
376 picks · 370 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
329 picks · 436 bans
49%
Luna
Luna
316 picks · 370 bans
54%
Enchantress
Enchantress
300 picks · 574 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
278 picks · 147 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
265 picks · 342 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
258 picks · 242 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)31% vs 55%
Hero pool strength51% 9Pandas
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total58% 9Pandas
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:10
Nemiga Gaming 42%9Pandas 58%
The model gave 58% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 33:08.
Model check result
Model favorite9Pandas · 58%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1