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ESL One Bangkok 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:1
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Alliancewin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Rubick
Rubick
jesv · 16 games
31%
Batrider
Batridersignature
jesv · 15 games
60%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
aik · 13 games
46%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Shishak · 13 games
69%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
aik · 12 games
58%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
nicky`cool · 12 games
33%
Underlord
Underlord
MikSa` · 12 games
33%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
nicky`cool · 11 games
55%

Alliance

Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Kidaro · 22 games
59%
Warlock
Warlockoften banned
Kidaro · 21 game
52%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Nande · 20 games
50%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
dEsire · 20 games
75%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Mo13ei · 20 games
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mo13ei · 15 games
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Palantimos · 14 games
50%
Visage
Visageoften banned
Palantimos · 14 games
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
433 picks · 557 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
376 picks · 381 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
329 picks · 444 bans
49%
Luna
Luna
316 picks · 374 bans
54%
Enchantress
Enchantress
301 picks · 579 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
278 picks · 149 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
266 picks · 344 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
258 picks · 242 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 44%
Hero pool strength53% Alliance
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total57% Alliance
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:26
Nemiga Gaming 43%Alliance 57%
The model gave 57% on Alliance — the game was taken by Alliance in 32:01.
Model check result
Model favoriteAlliance · 57%
Series resultAlliance 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1