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European Pro League Season 26 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
21%79%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Apple City Gangwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Miyaoo · 9 games
33%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Miyaoo · 7 games
29%
Lion
Lion
Shishak · 7 games
14%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
monodrama · 7 games
14%
Sand King
Sand King
ряф^^ · 7 games
0%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
спортик · 7 games
14%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
спортик · 6 games
33%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Shishak · 6 games
33%

Apple City Gang

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
dualrazee · 14 games
71%
Tusk
Tusk
QBFY · 12 games
58%
Marci
Marcioften banned
flacko · 9 games
44%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
flacko · 9 games
56%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
yowaai · 8 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
yowaai · 8 games
88%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
flacko · 7 games
71%
Jakiro
Jakiro
flacko · 7 games
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
452 picks · 669 bans
49%
Jakiro
Jakiro
418 picks · 411 bans
52%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
351 picks · 727 bans
52%
Bristleback
Bristleback
328 picks · 625 bans
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
316 picks · 524 bans
49%
Muerta
Muerta
314 picks · 187 bans
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
303 picks · 593 bans
51%
Warlock
Warlock
295 picks · 273 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)27% vs 54%
Hero pool strength66% Apple City Gang
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% Apple City Gang
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:23
Nemiga Gaming 32%Apple City Gang 68%
The model gave 68% on Apple City Gang — the game was taken by Apple City Gang in 26:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
Svenbashka
43% · 124 games47% · 90 games
Medusayowaai
Medusa
Sand King
Sand Kingспортик
54% · 249 games52% · 224 games
BristlebackNorma
Bristleback
Primal Beast
Primal BeastCovisnine
51% · 281 game45% · 308 games
Pangolierdualrazee
Pangolier
Ringmaster
RingmasterShishak
44% · 156 games52% · 93 games
Ancient Apparitionflacko
Ancient Apparition
Silencer
Silencermonodrama
55% · 94 games57% · 189 games
WindrangerFernans
Windranger
Game 2prediction correct10:29
Nemiga Gaming 32%Apple City Gang 68%
The model gave 68% on Apple City Gang — the game was taken by Apple City Gang in 25:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingbashka
52% · 301 game49% · 200 games
Terrorbladeyowaai
Terrorblade
Underlord
UnderlordCovisnine
44% · 106 games48% · 401 game
Tinydualrazee
Tiny
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritспортик
55% · 297 games55% · 233 games
BristlebackNorma
Bristleback
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeShishak
51% · 52 games52% · 133 games
RingmasterFernans
Ringmaster
Jakiro
Jakiromonodrama
49% · 374 games46% · 163 games
Elder Titanflacko
Elder Titan
Model check result
Model favoriteApple City Gang · 79%
Series resultApple City Gang 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2