PGL Wallachia Season 3. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingloss 1:2series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Ban9PivoSamogonwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nemiga Gaming
Snapfire
Shishak · 14 games
Hoodwink
Shishak · 11 games
Pangolieroften banned
Miyaoo · 11 games
Sven
Lowskill · 10 games
Clockwerkoften banned
antoha · 7 games
Elder Titansignature
forcemajor · 7 games
Jakiro
forcemajor · 7 games
Slardaroften banned
Miyaoo · 7 games
Ban9PivoSamogon
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
409 picks · 522 bans
Muerta
400 picks · 326 bans
Tusk
366 picks · 385 bans
Pangolier
348 picks · 572 bans
Lion
347 picks · 171 bans
Batrider
340 picks · 426 bans
Beastmaster
333 picks · 777 bans
Gyrocopter
320 picks · 473 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 43%
Hero pool strength54% Ban9PivoSamogon
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total64% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:39
Nemiga Gaming 64%Ban9PivoSamogon 36%
The model gave 64% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 48:55.
Game 2prediction missed34:15
Nemiga Gaming 64%Ban9PivoSamogon 36%
The model gave 64% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Ban9PivoSamogon in 34:24.
Game 3prediction missed
Nemiga Gaming 64%Ban9PivoSamogon 36%
The model gave 64% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Ban9PivoSamogon.
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 64%
Series resultBan9PivoSamogon 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3