Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:2series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 0:2
CIS Rejectswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nemiga Gaming
Marsoften banned
TheChosenOne · 28 games
Shadow Demon
Heaven · 27 games
Hoodwink
Heaven · 19 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
Lodine · 19 games
Dark Willow
Heaven · 17 games
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 17 games
Batrideroften banned
Ainkrad · 16 games
Abaddonoften banned
Lodine · 15 games
CIS Rejects
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
285 picks · 429 bans
Tidehunter
270 picks · 402 bans
Monkey King
262 picks · 668 bans
Bane
250 picks · 192 bans
Weaver
234 picks · 471 bans
Snapfire
218 picks · 117 bans
Void Spirit
212 picks · 257 bans
Lina
211 picks · 484 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 75%
Hero pool strength51% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% CIS Rejects
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct43:45
Nemiga Gaming 39%CIS Rejects 61%
The model gave 61% on CIS Rejects — the game was taken by CIS Rejects in 1:09:46.
Game 2prediction correct41:39
Nemiga Gaming 39%CIS Rejects 61%
The model gave 61% on CIS Rejects — the game was taken by CIS Rejects in 55:12.
Model check result
Model favoriteCIS Rejects · 61%
Series resultCIS Rejects 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2