?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Fantastic Fiveloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Mars
Marssignature
Ainkrad · 20 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 12 games
50%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
Kiritych · 12 games
58%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
Lodine · 11 games
36%
Lion
Lion
Lodine · 10 games
40%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Hellscream · 9 games
56%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Lodine · 8 games
63%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
tatakae · 7 games
43%

Fantastic Five

Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Muka · 11 games
73%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Askold · 10 games
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
633 · 8 games
75%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Askold · 8 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
633 · 7 games
57%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
SuperNova · 6 games
33%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Muka · 4 games
0%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Muka · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
459 picks · 181 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
362 picks · 201 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
348 picks · 556 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
329 picks · 825 bans
49%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
318 picks · 478 bans
56%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
308 picks · 611 bans
58%
Tiny
Tiny
305 picks · 243 bans
51%
Enchantress
Enchantress
287 picks · 363 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 62%
Hero pool strength50% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total59% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct49:27
Nemiga Gaming 56%Fantastic Five 44%
The model gave 56% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 46:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenKiritych
42% · 21 game47% · 75 games
LinaAskold
Lina
Invoker
InvokerAinkrad
57% · 63 games38% · 53 games
AxeActor
Axe
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightLodine
44% · 22 games59% · 97 games
MiranaMuka
Mirana
Hoodwink
HoodwinkHeaven
44% · 66 gameslittle data
Dazzle633
Dazzle
Pangolier
PangolierTheChosenOne
60% · 53 games
Game 2prediction correct38:59
Nemiga Gaming 57%Fantastic Five 43%
The model gave 57% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 51:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackKiritych
48% · 36 games44% · 48 games
BroodmotherActor
Broodmother
Axe
AxeTheChosenOne
46% · 63 games54% · 76 games
InvokerAskold
Invoker
Doom
DoomAinkrad
61% · 38 games42% · 91 game
Earth SpiritMuka
Earth Spirit
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionLodine
53% · 58 games47% · 68 games
Winter Wyvern633
Winter Wyvern
Mirana
MiranaHeaven
58% · 88 games
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 59%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2