?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Hellbear Smasherswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Mars
Marsoften banned
Ainkrad · 18 games
44%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Ainkrad · 13 games
69%
Lion
Lion
Lodine · 11 games
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Hellscream · 10 games
50%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
Kiritych · 10 games
60%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
Lodine · 9 games
44%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Hellscream · 9 games
33%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Lodine · 8 games
63%

Hellbear Smashers

Invoker
Invokersignature
Stormstormer · 22 games
77%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Ace · 22 games
64%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Gilgir · 20 games
80%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Stormstormer · 18 games
56%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Stormstormer · 18 games
39%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Ace · 16 games
56%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Stormstormer · 16 games
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
tOfu · 15 games
47%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
424 picks · 171 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
312 picks · 519 bans
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
311 picks · 465 bans
56%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
297 picks · 625 bans
57%
Puck
Puck
297 picks · 742 bans
47%
Snapfire
Snapfire
289 picks · 163 bans
53%
Enchantress
Enchantress
276 picks · 361 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
268 picks · 219 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 55%
Hero pool strength56% Hellbear Smashers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Hellbear Smashers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:42
Nemiga Gaming 47%Hellbear Smashers 53%
The model gave 53% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers in 53:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaAinkrad
47% · 86 games48% · 13 games
Arc WardenAce
Arc Warden
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterKiritych
56% · 36 games40% · 117 games
Dragon KnightStormstormer
Dragon Knight
Death Prophet
Death ProphetTheChosenOne
54% · 101 game36% · 46 games
BrewmasterGeneRaL
Brewmaster
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonHeaven
55% · 40 games48% · 145 games
ClockwerktOfu
Clockwerk
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinLodine
63% · 152 games51% · 94 games
HoodwinkGilgir
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction correct50:30
Nemiga Gaming 44%Hellbear Smashers 56%
The model gave 56% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers in 41:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invoker
InvokerAinkrad
44% · 60 games49% · 74 games
LunaAce
Luna
Enigma
EnigmaTheChosenOne
47% · 37 games63% · 56 games
KunkkaStormstormer
Kunkka
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidKiritych
56% · 34 games47% · 99 games
PangoliertOfu
Pangolier
Enchantress
EnchantressHeaven
49% · 76 games53% · 72 games
HoodwinkGilgir
Hoodwink
Abaddon
AbaddonLodine
46% · 94 gameslittle data
PudgeGeneRaL
Pudge
Model check result
Model favoriteHellbear Smashers · 62%
Series resultHellbear Smashers 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2