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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Hydraloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Kiritych · 21 game
48%
Mars
Marsoften banned
TheChosenOne · 21 game
48%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
VANSKOR · 20 games
55%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Ainkrad · 18 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Heaven · 17 games
53%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Kiritych · 17 games
47%
Bane
Banesignature
VANSKOR · 16 games
69%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Heaven · 16 games
63%

Hydra

Puck
Puckoften banned
Askold · 30 games
50%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Blizzy · 25 games
52%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Blizzy · 22 games
68%
Bane
Bane
Muka · 21 game
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Muka · 20 games
50%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Askold · 19 games
63%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Askold · 17 games
47%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Zayac · 16 games
69%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
467 picks · 643 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
455 picks · 436 bans
49%
Bane
Bane
446 picks · 273 bans
56%
Sand King
Sand King
411 picks · 560 bans
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
400 picks · 481 bans
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
398 picks · 645 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
360 picks · 559 bans
53%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
333 picks · 293 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 55%
Hero pool strength52% Hydra
Head-to-head1 – 5
Model total52% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:18
Nemiga Gaming 48%Hydra 52%
The model gave 52% on Hydra — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 35:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistKiritych
little data49% · 104 games
Void SpiritAskold
Void Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierCorrupted
53% · 68 games48% · 12 games
Lichkickeed
Lich
Tusk
TuskMalr1ne
40% · 24 games
Zeus
ZeusHellscream
little data
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernso bad
62% · 24 games
Game 2prediction correct15:12
Nemiga Gaming 52%Hydra 48%
The model gave 52% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 35:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Necrophos
NecrophosMalr1ne
46% · 54 games44% · 172 games
TinyAskold
Tiny
Juggernaut
JuggernautKiritych
50% · 32 games50% · 140 games
Abaddonkickeed
Abaddon
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightCorrupted
53% · 124 games
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageHellscream
64% · 50 games
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernso bad
52% · 52 games
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 52%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2