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DreamLeague Season 23 - Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingwin 1:0
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Hydraloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Lion
Lionsignature
aik · 14 games
79%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Hellscream · 9 games
78%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 9 games
44%
Pugna
Pugna
queezy · 9 games
44%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
forcemajor · 8 games
50%
Puck
Pucksignature
nicky`cool · 8 games
63%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Bb3px · 7 games
29%
Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
zenica · 6 games
67%

Hydra

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
hina · 3 games
33%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
JANTER · 2 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
xsvampire · 2 games
0%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
kur0patbI4 · 1 game
0%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Retsu · 1 game
0%
Anti-Mage
Anti-Mageoften banned
krylat · 1 game
0%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
JANTER · 1 game
0%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
kur0patbI4 · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
382 picks · 353 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
356 picks · 563 bans
57%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
343 picks · 337 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
342 picks · 517 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
330 picks · 261 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
323 picks · 632 bans
58%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
313 picks · 187 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
299 picks · 294 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 38%
Hero pool strength59% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total54% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:8
Nemiga Gaming 51%Hydra 49%
The model gave 51% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 31:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
Weaverv1olent-
52% · 48 games46% · 266 games
Keeper of the LightNattyNarwhal
Keeper of the Light
Pangolier
Pangoliernicky`cool
50% · 185 games54% · 236 games
Centaur WarrunnerDkFogas
Centaur Warrunner
Primal Beast
Primal BeastMikSa`
52% · 158 games50% · 284 games
Shadow Demonxsvampire
Shadow Demon
Rubick
Rubickqueezy
45% · 205 games
Techies
Techiesaik
53% · 190 games
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 54%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1