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European Pro League Season 36 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Ilbirs eSportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Jakiro
Jakiro
VaniLLl · 19 games
37%
Puck
Pucksignature
young G · 13 games
62%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
VaniLLl · 12 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
ariel · 11 games
45%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
ariel · 11 games
55%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Covisnine · 10 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
VaniLLl · 10 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
young G · 10 games
40%

Ilbirs eSports

Mars
Marsoften banned
Norma · 7 games
29%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
egx · 6 games
33%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
xsvampire · 5 games
20%
Tiny
Tiny
xsvampire · 5 games
60%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Miyaoo · 4 games
25%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Undyne_ · 4 games
0%
Primal Beast
Primal Beast
Norma · 4 games
75%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
rubikon155 · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
632 picks · 623 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
510 picks · 415 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
477 picks · 406 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
430 picks · 453 bans
53%
Warlock
Warlock
421 picks · 271 bans
48%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
407 picks · 189 bans
58%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
397 picks · 1055 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
382 picks · 853 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 39%
Hero pool strength56% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total72% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct52:31
Nemiga Gaming 62%Ilbirs eSports 38%
The model gave 62% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 1:00:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painyoung G
49% · 247 games53% · 159 games
Terrorbladerubikon155
Terrorblade
Monkey King
Monkey Kingselfhate
49% · 148 games56% · 162 games
Void Spiritniche
Void Spirit
Primal Beast
Primal BeastCovisnine
49% · 143 games44% · 62 games
ViperfortniteMan
Viper
Venomancer
VenomancerVaniLLl
48% · 62 games56% · 274 games
HoodwinkPonlo
Hoodwink
Rubick
Rubickariel
49% · 114 games43% · 57 games
PudgeUndyne_
Pudge
Game 2prediction correct37:7
Nemiga Gaming 62%Ilbirs eSports 38%
The model gave 62% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 37:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinselfhate
57% · 134 games67% · 45 games
Broodmotherrubikon155
Broodmother
Axe
AxeCovisnine
40% · 165 games46% · 490 games
Void Spiritniche
Void Spirit
Puck
Puckyoung G
47% · 492 games55% · 312 games
SlardarfortniteMan
Slardar
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkariel
48% · 279 games53% · 132 games
LionPonlo
Lion
Enchantress
EnchantressVaniLLl
44% · 114 games49% · 205 games
DazzleUndyne_
Dazzle
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 72%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2