European Pro League Season 30 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:0series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Inner Circleloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nemiga Gaming
Storm Spiritsignature
young G · 23 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
bashka · 19 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Covisnine · 17 games
Marsoften banned
Covisnine · 17 games
Dark Willowsignature
xsvampire · 15 games
Jakiro
monodrama · 14 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
bashka · 13 games
Windranger
xsvampire · 13 games
Inner Circle
Hoodwink
Fernans · 4 games
Magnus
Norma · 4 games
Marsoften banned
Norma · 4 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
yowaai · 4 games
Warlock
flacko · 4 games
Invokeroften banned
dualrazee · 3 games
Pugnaoften banned
flacko · 3 games
Tusk
Fernans · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
415 picks · 375 bans
Snapfire
380 picks · 193 bans
Puck
342 picks · 886 bans
Pugna
312 picks · 357 bans
Tusk
285 picks · 234 bans
Warlock
280 picks · 137 bans
Batrider
278 picks · 678 bans
Dawnbreaker
275 picks · 807 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 40%
Hero pool strength53% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Inner Circle
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed47:22
Nemiga Gaming 50%Inner Circle 50%
The model gave 50% on Inner Circle — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 46:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Voidbashka
Troll Warlordyowaai
Void Spirityoung G
Queen of Painniche
SlardarCovisnine
MarsNorma
Snapfirexsvampire
HoodwinkFernans
44% · 99 games
Pugnaflacko
Game 2prediction missed29:12
Nemiga Gaming 48%Inner Circle 52%
The model gave 52% on Inner Circle — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 34:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorbladebashka
Lunayowaai
Earthshakeryoung G
Leshracniche
Night StalkerCovisnine
MagnusNorma
Dark Willowxsvampire
SnapfireFernans
47% · 295 games
Tuskflacko
Model check result
Model favoriteInner Circle · 53%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2