?
arrow_backBack to match
European Pro League Season 40 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Kalmychatawin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
ariel · 28 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
Covisnine · 26 games
38%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
young G · 20 games
35%
Techies
Techies
ariel · 20 games
45%
Jakiro
Jakiro
VaniLLl · 19 games
42%
Rubick
Rubick
ariel · 17 games
47%
Phoenix
Phoenix
VaniLLl · 16 games
56%
Tusk
Tusk
ariel · 15 games
47%

Kalmychata

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
xn丶e · 4 games
25%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
JANTER · 4 games
25%
Mirana
Mirana
ani-san · 3 games
33%
Rubick
Rubick
ani-san · 3 games
33%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
ani-san · 2 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
ani-san · 2 games
50%
Largo
Largooften banned
Ankou · 2 games
100%
Lone Druid
Lone Druidoften banned
yowaai · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
483 picks · 293 bans
51%
Mirana
Mirana
342 picks · 144 bans
54%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
337 picks · 156 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
318 picks · 462 bans
59%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
293 picks · 298 bans
55%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
291 picks · 446 bans
53%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
275 picks · 250 bans
59%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
269 picks · 197 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)32% vs 45%
Hero pool strength50% Kalmychata
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total65% Kalmychata
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:46
Nemiga Gaming 44%Kalmychata 56%
The model gave 56% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 42:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
Puckyoung G
50% · 247 games48% · 144 games
Nature's Prophetyowaai
Nature's Prophet
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakertakizawa
53% · 117 games47% · 113 games
Sand Kingnicky`cool
Sand King
Sven
Svenbyun
50% · 104 games49% · 137 games
Dark SeerAnkou
Dark Seer
Windranger
Windrangerariel
51% · 227 games41% · 214 games
Dark Willowxsvampire
Dark Willow
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernVaniLLl
59% · 147 games51% · 234 games
Ringmasterani-san
Ringmaster
Game 2prediction correct18:36
Nemiga Gaming 43%Kalmychata 57%
The model gave 57% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 41:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lycan
Lycantakizawa
51% · 142 games57% · 57 games
Lone Druidyowaai
Lone Druid
Sven
Svenbyun
45% · 178 games50% · 269 games
Snapfirenicky`cool
Snapfire
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirityoung G
47% · 479 games55% · 352 games
Centaur WarrunnerAnkou
Centaur Warrunner
Mirana
MiranaVaniLLl
52% · 262 games50% · 217 games
Windrangerxsvampire
Windranger
Dark Willow
Dark Willowariel
43% · 374 games52% · 540 games
Hoodwinkani-san
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteKalmychata · 65%
Series resultKalmychata 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2