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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Khanwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Heaven · 25 games
52%
Mars
Marsoften banned
TheChosenOne · 23 games
39%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Heaven · 19 games
47%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Heaven · 16 games
44%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Lodine · 16 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 16 games
56%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Lodine · 15 games
47%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ainkrad · 15 games
47%

Khan

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
pJonn · 10 games
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
pJonn · 9 games
44%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Dodren · 9 games
67%
Mars
Marssignature
pJonn · 8 games
63%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Dodren · 7 games
57%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
layme · 7 games
43%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
layme · 7 games
57%
Bane
Bane
antoha · 6 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
260 picks · 318 bans
48%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
258 picks · 378 bans
51%
Monkey King
Monkey King
242 picks · 536 bans
61%
Lion
Lion
231 picks · 116 bans
52%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
224 picks · 245 bans
51%
Lina
Lina
222 picks · 470 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
220 picks · 287 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
209 picks · 280 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 47%
Hero pool strength50% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total60% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct46:11
Nemiga Gaming 55%Khan 45%
The model gave 55% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 33:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkka
KunkkaKiritych
39% · 73 games55% · 82 games
Phantom Assassinlayme
Phantom Assassin
Razor
RazorTheChosenOne
52% · 77 games50% · 170 games
Tidehunterchshrct
Tidehunter
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritAinkrad
48% · 151 game48% · 119 games
BatriderPikachu
Batrider
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonHeaven
58% · 114 games52% · 168 games
Monkey Kinggoddam
Monkey King
Lion
LionVANSKOR
47% · 219 games51% · 95 games
DisruptorAccell
Disruptor
Game 2prediction missed32:38
Nemiga Gaming 55%Khan 45%
The model gave 55% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Khan in 45:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawTheChosenOne
47% · 143 games49% · 143 games
Terrorbladelayme
Terrorblade
Sven
SvenKiritych
49% · 89 games47% · 269 games
Void SpiritPikachu
Void Spirit
Mars
MarsAinkrad
50% · 324 games47% · 76 games
Legion Commanderchshrct
Legion Commander
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonHeaven
54% · 123 games54% · 112 games
Iogoddam
Io
Disruptor
DisruptorVANSKOR
61% · 105 games41% · 184 games
GrimstrokeAccell
Grimstroke
Game 3prediction missed14:32
Nemiga Gaming 52%Khan 48%
The model gave 52% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Khan in 37:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerKiritych
57% · 87 games46% · 119 games
Lunalayme
Luna
Razor
RazorTheChosenOne
51% · 62 games48% · 312 games
Marschshrct
Mars
Puck
PuckAinkrad
47% · 277 games47% · 111 games
Storm SpiritPikachu
Storm Spirit
Disruptor
DisruptorVANSKOR
47% · 102 games50% · 86 games
Shadow Demongoddam
Shadow Demon
Clockwerk
ClockwerkHeaven
55% · 159 games56% · 59 games
UndyingAccell
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 60%
Series resultKhan 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3