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ESL One Birmingham 2026. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
19%81%
probability at match start · final 1:2
HULIGANIwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
young G · 19 games
68%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
bashka · 18 games
44%
Mars
Marssignature
Covisnine · 16 games
63%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
xsvampire · 14 games
71%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Covisnine · 13 games
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
xsvampire · 13 games
46%
Puck
Pucksignature
young G · 12 games
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
xsvampire · 11 games
45%

HULIGANI

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Bb3px · 37 games
70%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Bb3px · 37 games
57%
Chen
Chensignature
RESPECT · 33 games
61%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
slimeyao · 32 games
72%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
slimeyao · 30 games
60%
Snapfire
Snapfire
RESPECT · 29 games
52%
Tusk
Tusk
slimeyao · 29 games
59%
Warlock
Warlock
RESPECT · 29 games
52%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
542 picks · 745 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
486 picks · 347 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
464 picks · 638 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
440 picks · 544 bans
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
373 picks · 645 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
359 picks · 551 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
344 picks · 465 bans
48%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
341 picks · 152 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 68%
Hero pool strength54% HULIGANI
Head-to-head2 – 3
Model total81% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:24
Nemiga Gaming 31%HULIGANI 69%
The model gave 69% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 51:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeselfhate
49% · 282 games58% · 210 games
Monkey Kingv1olent-
Monkey King
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painyoung G
42% · 239 games58% · 146 games
Timbersawerase
Timbersaw
Underlord
UnderlordCovisnine
42% · 84 games51% · 224 games
SlardarBb3px
Slardar
Ringmaster
RingmasterVaniLLl
47% · 302 games56% · 124 games
ChenRESPECT
Chen
54% · 203 games
Windrangerslimeyao
Windranger
Game 2prediction correct16:33
Nemiga Gaming 31%HULIGANI 69%
The model gave 69% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 42:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
Abaddonselfhate
49% · 244 games47% · 198 games
Templar Assassinv1olent-
Templar Assassin
Puck
Puckyoung G
49% · 371 game48% · 256 games
Ember Spiriterase
Ember Spirit
Phoenix
PhoenixCovisnine
48% · 168 games55% · 150 games
SlardarBb3px
Slardar
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenVaniLLl
51% · 88 games56% · 65 games
Keeper of the Lightslimeyao
Keeper of the Light
49% · 202 games
Shadow ShamanRESPECT
Shadow Shaman
Game 3prediction correct12:18
Nemiga Gaming 32%HULIGANI 68%
The model gave 68% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 41:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingselfhate
46% · 121 game55% · 233 games
Templar Assassinv1olent-
Templar Assassin
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightyoung G
46% · 266 games53% · 118 games
UnderlordBb3px
Underlord
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerCovisnine
45% · 210 games55% · 340 games
Ember Spiriterase
Ember Spirit
Jakiro
JakiroVaniLLl
49% · 335 games53% · 117 games
TinkerRESPECT
Tinker
50% · 124 games
Skywrath Mageslimeyao
Skywrath Mage
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 81%
Series resultHULIGANI 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3