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PGL Wallachia Season 7. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 1:2
HULIGANIwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
bashka · 20 games
45%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
young G · 19 games
68%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Covisnine · 16 games
50%
Mars
Marssignature
Covisnine · 16 games
63%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
xsvampire · 14 games
71%
Puck
Puckoften banned
young G · 14 games
57%
Snapfire
Snapfire
xsvampire · 13 games
46%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
Covisnine · 13 games
54%

HULIGANI

Mars
Marsoften banned
Bb3px · 40 games
55%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Bb3px · 39 games
69%
Chen
Chensignature
RESPECT · 35 games
63%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
slimeyao · 33 games
70%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
slimeyao · 32 games
69%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
slimeyao · 31 game
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
RESPECT · 30 games
53%
Tusk
Tusk
slimeyao · 30 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
530 picks · 864 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
511 picks · 378 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
469 picks · 632 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
455 picks · 589 bans
57%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
395 picks · 815 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
350 picks · 574 bans
60%
Mars
Mars
343 picks · 482 bans
47%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
341 picks · 568 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 65%
Hero pool strength55% HULIGANI
Head-to-head2 – 4
Model total73% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:32
Nemiga Gaming 36%HULIGANI 64%
The model gave 64% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 27:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingselfhate
46% · 175 games51% · 111 games
Lifestealerv1olent-
Lifestealer
Razor
Razoryoung G
52% · 40 games50% · 251 game
Puckxn丶e
Puck
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerCovisnine
54% · 382 games51% · 204 games
MarsBb3px
Mars
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakervelheor
56% · 54 games55% · 23 games
Grimstrokeslimeyao
Grimstroke
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanVaniLLl
52% · 270 games40% · 332 games
JakiroRESPECT
Jakiro
Game 2prediction missed41:33
Nemiga Gaming 37%HULIGANI 63%
The model gave 63% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 1:05:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
Puckyoung G
44% · 567 games48% · 407 games
Gyrocopterv1olent-
Gyrocopter
Ursa
Ursaselfhate
57% · 347 games49% · 416 games
MarsBb3px
Mars
Pangolier
PangolierCovisnine
50% · 431 game51% · 361 game
Void Spiritxn丶e
Void Spirit
Warlock
WarlockVaniLLl
49% · 518 games48% · 425 games
SnapfireRESPECT
Snapfire
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonvelheor
55% · 388 games49% · 642 games
Jakiroslimeyao
Jakiro
Game 3prediction correct10:26
Nemiga Gaming 34%HULIGANI 66%
The model gave 66% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 31:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
Puckyoung G
53% · 399 games55% · 198 games
Templar Assassinv1olent-
Templar Assassin
Sven
Svenselfhate
44% · 144 games49% · 372 games
Dragon Knightxn丶e
Dragon Knight
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerCovisnine
43% · 160 games48% · 76 games
BrewmasterBb3px
Brewmaster
Batrider
Batridervelheor
46% · 260 games49% · 206 games
Ringmasterslimeyao
Ringmaster
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenVaniLLl
52% · 73 games61% · 184 games
BaneRESPECT
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 73%
Series resultHULIGANI 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3