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ESL One Birmingham 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingwin 1:0
series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Night Pulseloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 17 games
53%
Lion
Lionsignature
aik · 12 games
75%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Hellscream · 10 games
70%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
RodjER · 8 games
50%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Corrupted · 7 games
57%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
forcemajor · 7 games
29%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
forcemajor · 7 games
57%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
v1olent- · 6 games
83%

Night Pulse

Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
JANTER · 2 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Askold · 1 game
0%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Askold · 1 game
100%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
JANTER · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
298 picks · 433 bans
55%
Phoenix
Phoenix
272 picks · 409 bans
49%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
260 picks · 441 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
227 picks · 206 bans
46%
Lion
Lion
226 picks · 204 bans
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
225 picks · 635 bans
53%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
222 picks · 114 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
215 picks · 308 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 44%
Hero pool strength55% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:12
Nemiga Gaming 64%Night Pulse 36%
The model gave 64% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 38:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
Lunav1olent-
55% · 27 games45% · 172 games
PuckAskold
Puck
Pangolier
Pangolierxn丶e
47% · 66 games
Night Stalker
Night Stalkerzenica
53% · 15 games
Batrider
Batrideraik
61% · 50 games
Lion
LionHellscream
61% · 14 games
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 76%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1