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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
22%78%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Jakiro
Jakiro
VaniLLl · 20 games
35%
Puck
Pucksignature
young G · 14 games
64%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
ariel · 13 games
46%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Covisnine · 12 games
58%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
VaniLLl · 12 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
young G · 11 games
45%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
ariel · 11 games
55%
Tusk
Tusk
ariel · 11 games
55%

Nigma Galaxy

Dazzle
Dazzleoften banned
GH · 28 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OmaR · 27 games
48%
Jakiro
Jakiro
GH · 25 games
28%
Muerta
Muerta
rincyq · 24 games
54%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
OmaR · 23 games
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
rincyq · 22 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
SumaiL · 22 games
50%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
No!ob · 19 games
37%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
622 picks · 594 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
500 picks · 407 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
468 picks · 401 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
436 picks · 470 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
417 picks · 197 bans
58%
Warlock
Warlock
411 picks · 261 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
391 picks · 1038 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
380 picks · 865 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 51%
Hero pool strength52% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total78% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:23
Nemiga Gaming 35%Nigma Galaxy 65%
The model gave 65% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 36:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursaselfhate
51% · 168 games61% · 18 games
Lone Druidrincyq
Lone Druid
Puck
Puckyoung G
52% · 289 games48% · 420 games
BeastmasterNo!ob
Beastmaster
Kunkka
KunkkaCovisnine
46% · 127 games47% · 211 games
UnderlordDavai
Underlord
Enchantress
EnchantressVaniLLl
50% · 114 games52% · 159 games
RubickOmaR
Rubick
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkariel
48% · 270 games52% · 160 games
SilencerGH
Silencer
Game 2prediction correct11:30
Nemiga Gaming 33%Nigma Galaxy 67%
The model gave 67% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 25:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
Puckyoung G
44% · 259 games51% · 299 games
Muertarincyq
Muerta
Tiny
Tinyselfhate
46% · 226 games54% · 110 games
LycanNo!ob
Lycan
Pangolier
PangolierCovisnine
43% · 187 games51% · 269 games
UnderlordDavai
Underlord
Venomancer
Venomancerariel
56% · 50 games57% · 172 games
RubickOmaR
Rubick
Jakiro
JakiroVaniLLl
44% · 295 games57% · 167 games
Keeper of the LightGH
Keeper of the Light
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 78%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2