DreamLeague Season 22. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingwin 1:0series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 1:0
One Moveloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nemiga Gaming
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 12 games
Phoenixoften banned
RodjER · 8 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
forcemajor · 7 games
Dark Seersignature
Corrupted · 6 games
Lionsignature
so bad · 6 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
forcemajor · 6 games
Razoroften banned
Malr1ne · 6 games
Brewmasteroften banned
Bb3px · 5 games
One Move
Disruptor
Xakoda · 10 games
Legion Commandersignature
AfterLife · 9 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ainkrad · 8 games
Rubick
Panto · 8 games
Batrideroften banned
Gilgir · 7 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
AfterLife · 7 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Munkushi~ · 7 games
Phoenixoften banned
Panto · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
259 picks · 437 bans
Phoenix
238 picks · 368 bans
Muerta
225 picks · 317 bans
Centaur Warrunner
222 picks · 291 bans
Dark Willow
212 picks · 99 bans
Tusk
211 picks · 196 bans
Treant Protector
190 picks · 359 bans
Kunkka
186 picks · 517 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 56%
Hero pool strength54% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total59% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:14
Nemiga Gaming 57%One Move 43%
The model gave 57% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 33:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphlingv1olent-
BatriderSSS
Pucknicky`cool
Axechempik
Dazzlezenica
Rubickqueezy
EarthshakerHellscream
Vengeful SpiritXakoda
Lionaik
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 59%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1