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European Pro League Season 28 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Passion UAwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Jakiro
Jakiro
monodrama · 14 games
29%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Covisnine · 9 games
67%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
bashka · 8 games
13%
Windranger
Windranger
xsvampire · 8 games
25%
Sven
Svenoften banned
bashka · 7 games
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
young G · 6 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Covisnine · 6 games
33%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
спортик · 6 games
0%

Passion UA

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
niche · 19 games
42%
Muerta
Muerta
Fernans · 17 games
47%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Batyuk · 16 games
56%
Windranger
Windranger
QBFY · 13 games
31%
Jakiro
Jakiro
kreker · 12 games
33%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Batyuk · 10 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
QBFY · 10 games
30%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Crystallize · 10 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
504 picks · 540 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
413 picks · 429 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
352 picks · 368 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
341 picks · 505 bans
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
322 picks · 702 bans
46%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
300 picks · 195 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
300 picks · 552 bans
53%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
298 picks · 435 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 41%
Hero pool strength52% Passion UA
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total64% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Nemiga Gaming 64%Passion UA 36%
The model gave 64% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Passion UA.
Game 2prediction missed
Nemiga Gaming 64%Passion UA 36%
The model gave 64% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Passion UA.
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 64%
Series resultPassion UA 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2