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European Pro League Season 30 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Pipsqueak+4win 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
young G · 19 games
63%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
bashka · 17 games
47%
Jakiro
Jakiro
monodrama · 14 games
29%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Covisnine · 12 games
58%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
bashka · 12 games
58%
Windranger
Windranger
xsvampire · 12 games
42%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Covisnine · 10 games
60%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
xsvampire · 10 games
30%

Pipsqueak+4

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
393 picks · 308 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
321 picks · 740 bans
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
318 picks · 170 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
309 picks · 299 bans
47%
Batrider
Batrider
298 picks · 794 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
268 picks · 615 bans
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
265 picks · 532 bans
56%
Marci
Marci
246 picks · 480 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Pipsqueak+4
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed9:25
Nemiga Gaming 59%Pipsqueak+4 41%
The model gave 59% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 34:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidLowskill
53% · 26 games48% · 213 games
MedusaTimado
Medusa
Mars
MarsCovisnine
49% · 123 games52% · 100 games
UndyingMiyaoo
Undying
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirityoung G
52% · 213 games54% · 163 games
Earthshakerxn丶e
Earthshaker
Pugna
Pugnamonodrama
56% · 173 games43% · 145 games
Snapfiresayuw
Snapfire
Dark Willow
Dark Willowxsvampire
48% · 215 games45% · 129 games
DisruptorKaori
Disruptor
Game 2prediction missed13:49
Nemiga Gaming 56%Pipsqueak+4 44%
The model gave 56% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 42:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendLowskill
54% · 222 games48% · 139 games
UrsaTimado
Ursa
Pangolier
PangolierCovisnine
49% · 463 games48% · 383 games
BatriderMiyaoo
Batrider
Void Spirit
Void Spirityoung G
54% · 193 games48% · 379 games
Puckxn丶e
Puck
Tiny
Tinyxsvampire
52% · 511 games45% · 255 games
WarlockKaori
Warlock
Bane
Banemonodrama
54% · 153 games48% · 386 games
Tusksayuw
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 62%
Series resultPipsqueak+4 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2