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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — СНГ 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Prosti Esliloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Mars
Marsoften banned
Ainkrad · 19 games
58%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
Lodine · 10 games
40%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 10 games
50%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
Kiritych · 10 games
60%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Lodine · 8 games
75%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Lodine · 6 games
67%
Lion
Lion
Lodine · 6 games
50%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
tatakae · 6 games
50%

Prosti Esli

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
415 picks · 950 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
384 picks · 543 bans
51%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
347 picks · 711 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
326 picks · 556 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
315 picks · 303 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
295 picks · 219 bans
52%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
278 picks · 284 bans
51%
Lion
Lion
277 picks · 151 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 55%
Hero pool strength53% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total61% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed4:24
Nemiga Gaming 61%Prosti Esli 39%
The model gave 61% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Prosti Esli in 28:43.
Game 2prediction correct0:0
Nemiga Gaming 61%Prosti Esli 39%
The model gave 61% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 54:10.
Game 3prediction correct29:22
Nemiga Gaming 61%Prosti Esli 39%
The model gave 61% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 42:43.
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 61%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3