?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
PuckChamploss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Mars
Marsoften banned
TheChosenOne · 20 games
50%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Kiritych · 19 games
47%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
VANSKOR · 17 games
47%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Ainkrad · 16 games
44%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Heaven · 16 games
63%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
VANSKOR · 16 games
56%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Kiritych · 16 games
44%
Bane
Banesignature
VANSKOR · 13 games
69%

PuckChamp

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
508 picks · 448 bans
48%
Mars
Mars
494 picks · 691 bans
48%
Bane
Bane
463 picks · 286 bans
58%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
435 picks · 530 bans
52%
Sand King
Sand King
405 picks · 553 bans
55%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
401 picks · 644 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
377 picks · 617 bans
51%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
361 picks · 315 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 40%
Hero pool strength51% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total50% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:12
Nemiga Gaming 50%PuckChamp 50%
The model gave 50% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 34:15.
Game 2prediction correct35:13
Nemiga Gaming 50%PuckChamp 50%
The model gave 50% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 41:01.
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 50%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2