?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 1:2
qwerty44win 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Mars
Marsoften banned
TheChosenOne · 27 games
44%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Heaven · 26 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 21 game
57%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Lodine · 19 games
42%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Heaven · 18 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Heaven · 17 games
41%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Ainkrad · 17 games
53%
Lina
Linasignature
Heaven · 15 games
67%

qwerty44

Invoker
Invokeroften banned
USHUSHUSH · 10 games
10%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Fezor · 6 games
17%
Bane
Bane
Fezor · 5 games
0%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Kom4rt · 4 games
0%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
Kom4rt · 4 games
0%
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lanceroften banned
Kom4rt · 4 games
25%
Clinkz
Clinkzoften banned
Kom4rt · 3 games
33%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Fezor · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
351 picks · 179 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
286 picks · 103 bans
48%
Mars
Mars
269 picks · 412 bans
49%
Lina
Lina
262 picks · 527 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
261 picks · 360 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
237 picks · 335 bans
51%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
230 picks · 240 bans
58%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
219 picks · 471 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 22%
Hero pool strength64% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total77% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:30
Nemiga Gaming 64%qwerty44 36%
The model gave 64% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 37:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkKiritych
47% · 27 games52% · 142 games
MedusaKom4rt
Medusa
Tidehunter
TidehunterTheChosenOne
49% · 82 games45% · 117 games
Storm SpiritUSHUSHUSH
Storm Spirit
Batrider
BatriderAinkrad
44% · 57 games60% · 77 games
Treant ProtectorFezor
Treant Protector
Tiny
TinyHeaven
56% · 90 games
Hoodwink
HoodwinkLodine
42% · 80 games
Game 2prediction missed26:44
Nemiga Gaming 68%qwerty44 32%
The model gave 68% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by qwerty44 in 53:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenKiritych
49% · 51 game43% · 73 games
LifestealerShigetsu
Lifestealer
Leshrac
LeshracAinkrad
61% · 64 games48% · 87 games
Storm SpiritUSHUSHUSH
Storm Spirit
Slardar
SlardarTheChosenOne
63% · 27 games47% · 47 games
DisruptorFezor
Disruptor
Dark Willow
Dark WillowHeaven
54% · 46 games
Omniknight
OmniknightLodine
42% · 19 games
Game 3prediction missed22:54
Nemiga Gaming 69%qwerty44 31%
The model gave 69% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by qwerty44 in 38:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeKiritych
59% · 48 games42% · 62 games
SlarkShigetsu
Slark
Batrider
BatriderAinkrad
45% · 71 game47% · 120 games
LinaUSHUSHUSH
Lina
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritTheChosenOne
52% · 17 games47% · 63 games
DisruptorFezor
Disruptor
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonHeaven
54% · 62 games
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorLodine
61% · 47 games
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 77%
Series resultqwerty44 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3