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Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Ram Squadloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 20 games
65%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Hellscream · 18 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Hellscream · 13 games
77%
Techies
Techies
Hellscream · 13 games
54%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
v1olent- · 13 games
62%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
so bad · 13 games
38%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Malr1ne · 12 games
42%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Malr1ne · 11 games
36%

Ram Squad

Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakersignature
Flash · 7 games
71%
Clinkz
Clinkzoften banned
w33 · 4 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
canceL^^ · 3 games
33%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
ArisE · 2 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
BliNcc · 2 games
100%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
canceL^^ · 2 games
50%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
kAAN · 2 games
100%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
kAAN · 2 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
709 picks · 605 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
573 picks · 503 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
473 picks · 1161 bans
59%
Doom
Doom
469 picks · 870 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
422 picks · 1070 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
404 picks · 860 bans
54%
Mirana
Mirana
396 picks · 216 bans
57%
Enchantress
Enchantress
394 picks · 570 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 62%
Hero pool strength51% Ram Squad
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:20
Nemiga Gaming 67%Ram Squad 33%
The model gave 67% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 34:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomCorrupted
52% · 317 games49% · 126 games
Chaos KnightkAAN
Chaos Knight
Juggernaut
Juggernautv1olent-
60% · 73 games42% · 122 games
MagnusBliNcc
Magnus
Void Spirit
Void SpiritMalr1ne
47% · 147 games42% · 336 games
Ember SpiritcanceL^^
Ember Spirit
Batrider
BatriderHellscream
51% · 274 games52% · 408 games
Rubickw33
Rubick
Silencer
Silencerso bad
55% · 262 games54% · 81 game
OracleFlash
Oracle
Game 2prediction correct39:23
Nemiga Gaming 66%Ram Squad 34%
The model gave 66% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 30:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Magnus
MagnusCorrupted
47% · 99 games51% · 177 games
MorphlingkAAN
Morphling
Pangolier
PangolierMalr1ne
45% · 221 game40% · 108 games
Spirit BreakerBliNcc
Spirit Breaker
Void Spirit
Void Spiritv1olent-
58% · 172 games54% · 308 games
PuckcanceL^^
Puck
Disruptor
Disruptorso bad
55% · 145 games53% · 106 games
Pugnaw33
Pugna
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageHellscream
47% · 130 games50% · 68 games
VenomancerFlash
Venomancer
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 79%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2