Nemiga Gaming vs salamit — prediction EPL Masters III · Dota 2

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EPL Masters III · BO3

result vs prediction

Nemiga Gamingloss 0:2

series probability

35%65%

probability at match start · final 0:2

Ssalamitwin 2:0

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Hoodwink

ariel · 28 games

54%

Pangolier

Covisnine · 24 games

29%

Techiesoften banned

ariel · 24 games

42%

Ember Spiritoften banned

young G · 19 games

37%

Rubick

ariel · 17 games

47%

Centaur Warrunner

Covisnine · 15 games

47%

Puckoften banned

young G · 15 games

53%

Windranger

byun · 14 games

57%

salamit

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Hoodwink

536 picks · 356 bans

49%

Dark Willow

473 picks · 263 bans

51%

Mirana

415 picks · 185 bans

52%

Winter Wyvern

369 picks · 346 bans

57%

Ember Spirit

343 picks · 528 bans

56%

Windranger

320 picks · 152 bans

52%

Centaur Warrunner

301 picks · 297 bans

54%

Earth Spirit

301 picks · 532 bans

53%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)31% vs 67%

Hero pool strength52% salamit

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total65% salamit

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct43:35

Nemiga Gaming 40%salamit 60%

The model gave 60% on salamit — the game was taken by salamit in 1:01:21.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo