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Leon Masters #1 · BO2
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:0
SIBE Teamloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
aik · 20 games
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Lukas · 19 games
68%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
queezy · 19 games
47%
Rubick
Rubick
queezy · 18 games
44%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
aik · 14 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
nicky`cool · 14 games
57%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
queezy · 13 games
62%
Luna
Lunasignature
v1olent- · 12 games
83%

SIBE Team

Rubick
Rubick
sunset · 31 game
39%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
sunset · 22 games
45%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
nesfeer · 16 games
31%
Puck
Pucksignature
ряф^^ · 15 games
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
ряф^^ · 14 games
43%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
SOhY · 14 games
43%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
ряф^^ · 14 games
57%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
SOhY · 13 games
46%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
437 picks · 652 bans
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
388 picks · 414 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
381 picks · 492 bans
54%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
380 picks · 165 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
330 picks · 603 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
328 picks · 724 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
326 picks · 487 bans
48%
Rubick
Rubick
326 picks · 160 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 53%
Hero pool strength56% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total51% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:15
Nemiga Gaming 52%SIBE Team 48%
The model gave 52% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 36:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverLukas
53% · 143 games46% · 155 games
Terrorbladeselfhate
Terrorblade
Visage
VisageMikSa`
40% · 29 games52% · 300 games
Tinyряф^^
Tiny
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightnicky`cool
44% · 230 games52% · 161 game
Windrangersunset
Windranger
Rubick
Rubickjesv
48% · 296 games61% · 190 games
ClockwerkSOhY
Clockwerk
Tusk
Tuskaik
49% · 108 games
Game 2prediction correct43:20
Nemiga Gaming 51%SIBE Team 49%
The model gave 51% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 33:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorLukas
40% · 132 games50% · 104 games
Troll Warlordряф^^
Troll Warlord
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightnicky`cool
48% · 162 games56% · 214 games
Storm Spiritselfhate
Storm Spirit
Primal Beast
Primal BeastMikSa`
52% · 186 games47% · 359 games
Rubicksunset
Rubick
Batrider
Batriderjesv
55% · 261 game47% · 229 games
Dark WillowSOhY
Dark Willow
Weaver
Weaveraik
55% · 165 games
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 51%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2