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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Empirewin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Mars
Marsoften banned
TheChosenOne · 23 games
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Heaven · 21 game
52%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Ainkrad · 17 games
65%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Lodine · 16 games
44%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Heaven · 16 games
44%
Lion
Lion
Lodine · 14 games
43%
Lina
Linasignature
Ainkrad · 12 games
67%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Lodine · 12 games
58%

Team Empire

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
sayuw · 26 games
65%
Invoker
Invokersignature
kiyotaka · 19 games
79%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
VANSKOR · 17 games
59%
Lina
Linasignature
kiyotaka · 13 games
69%
Luna
Lunasignature
Smiling Knight · 10 games
80%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Petushara · 10 games
50%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
VANSKOR · 9 games
78%
Mars
Marssignature
Shachlo · 9 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
398 picks · 175 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
355 picks · 129 bans
49%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
275 picks · 563 bans
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
271 picks · 355 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
264 picks · 415 bans
48%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
259 picks · 243 bans
54%
Puck
Puck
254 picks · 560 bans
49%
Lina
Lina
247 picks · 388 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 58%
Hero pool strength56% Team Empire
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total54% Team Empire
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:12
Nemiga Gaming 50%Team Empire 50%
The model gave 50% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Team Empire in 46:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz
ClinkzKiritych
54% · 9 games55% · 13 games
Shadow Fiendkiyotaka
Shadow Fiend
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightHeaven
59% · 51 game44% · 50 games
Faceless VoidSmiling Knight
Faceless Void
Tiny
TinyAinkrad
51% · 72 games44% · 8 games
Vengeful SpiritAfterLife
Vengeful Spirit
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerTheChosenOne
57% · 72 games49% · 105 games
Pangoliersayuw
Pangolier
Omniknight
OmniknightLodine
47% · 22 games40% · 50 games
AbaddonVANSKOR
Abaddon
Game 2prediction missed18:32
Nemiga Gaming 52%Team Empire 48%
The model gave 52% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Team Empire in 47:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistKiritych
47% · 22 games48% · 42 games
SvenSmiling Knight
Sven
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainAinkrad
44% · 32 games45% · 18 games
Outworld Destroyerkiyotaka
Outworld Destroyer
Beastmaster
BeastmasterTheChosenOne
63% · 56 games42% · 61 game
Sand KingAfterLife
Sand King
Lina
LinaHeaven
53% · 83 games50% · 101 game
Pangoliersayuw
Pangolier
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonLodine
55% · 37 games44% · 8 games
JakiroVANSKOR
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Empire · 54%
Series resultTeam Empire 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2