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Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Virtus.proloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 23 games
61%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Hellscream · 19 games
63%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Malr1ne · 17 games
47%
Techies
Techies
Hellscream · 16 games
44%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
v1olent- · 15 games
53%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Hellscream · 14 games
79%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Malr1ne · 13 games
77%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
so bad · 13 games
38%

Virtus.pro

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Squad1x · 24 games
54%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
sayuw · 20 games
45%
Mirana
Miranasignature
sayuw · 18 games
61%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Noticed · 17 games
53%
Rubick
Rubick
sayuw · 17 games
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
krylat · 16 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Dukalis · 15 games
60%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Fng · 15 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
712 picks · 615 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
594 picks · 516 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
497 picks · 1231 bans
59%
Doom
Doom
494 picks · 958 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
441 picks · 1100 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
429 picks · 883 bans
54%
Mirana
Mirana
416 picks · 220 bans
58%
Enchantress
Enchantress
410 picks · 590 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 61%
Hero pool strength53% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total62% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:29
Nemiga Gaming 45%Virtus.pro 55%
The model gave 55% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 25:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomCorrupted
49% · 163 games45% · 153 games
AlchemistKiritych
Alchemist
Slark
Slarkv1olent-
56% · 62 games49% · 204 games
Storm SpiritSquad1x
Storm Spirit
Void Spirit
Void SpiritMalr1ne
50% · 136 games42% · 27 games
AxeNoticed
Axe
Techies
TechiesHellscream
54% · 143 games50% · 135 games
Pugnasayuw
Pugna
Disruptor
DisruptorFishman
55% · 160 games48% · 145 games
LichFng
Lich
Game 2prediction missed33:18
Nemiga Gaming 47%Virtus.pro 53%
The model gave 53% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 36:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
Juggernautv1olent-
62% · 90 games53% · 257 games
Monkey KingKiritych
Monkey King
Doom
DoomCorrupted
55% · 357 games41% · 170 games
MagnusNoticed
Magnus
Pangolier
PangolierMalr1ne
51% · 405 games42% · 395 games
Ember SpiritSquad1x
Ember Spirit
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageHellscream
49% · 199 games48% · 259 games
Enchantresssayuw
Enchantress
Silencer
SilencerFishman
51% · 251 game51% · 221 game
TechiesFng
Techies
Game 3prediction missed36:16
Nemiga Gaming 45%Virtus.pro 55%
The model gave 55% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 33:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomCorrupted
45% · 174 games53% · 243 games
Monkey KingKiritych
Monkey King
Morphling
Morphlingv1olent-
60% · 102 games51% · 31 game
AxeNoticed
Axe
Pangolier
PangolierMalr1ne
50% · 168 games48% · 85 games
WindrangerSquad1x
Windranger
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonHellscream
51% · 30 games47% · 194 games
Techiessayuw
Techies
Silencer
SilencerFishman
47% · 117 games49% · 38 games
Ancient ApparitionFng
Ancient Apparition
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 62%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3