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Snow Sweet Snow #1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 1:2
XactJlepbIwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Mars
Marssignature
Ainkrad · 8 games
63%
Tusk
Tusk
Lodine · 4 games
50%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
tatakae · 3 games
100%
Pangolier
Pangolier
Ainkrad · 3 games
33%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
tatakae · 3 games
33%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Lodine · 2 games
50%
Legion Commander
Legion Commanderoften banned
TheChosenOne · 2 games
0%
Lion
Lion
Lodine · 2 games
50%

XactJlepbI

Rubick
Rubick
KingR · 5 games
80%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Funn1k · 5 games
60%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
lightless · 5 games
60%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
nofear · 4 games
75%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Funn1k · 4 games
75%
Pangolier
Pangolier
Funn1k · 4 games
75%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
KingR · 4 games
75%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
nofear · 4 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
127 picks · 234 bans
47%
Puck
Puck
125 picks · 289 bans
53%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
112 picks · 94 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
106 picks · 159 bans
58%
Phoenix
Phoenix
101 picks · 104 bans
53%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
82 picks · 284 bans
59%
Rubick
Rubick
80 picks · 37 bans
51%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
79 picks · 153 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 57%
Hero pool strength59% XactJlepbI
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% XactJlepbI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:28
Nemiga Gaming 47%XactJlepbI 53%
The model gave 53% on XactJlepbI — the game was taken by XactJlepbI in 35:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordtatakae
47% · 7 games50% · 6 games
Weaverlightless
Weaver
Pangolier
PangolierAinkrad
59% · 10 gameslittle data
RazorMagicaL
Razor
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerTheChosenOne
43% · 3 games50% · 6 games
TidehunterFunn1k
Tidehunter
Witch Doctor
Witch DoctorLodine
57% · 3 games44% · 8 games
MiranaKingR
Mirana
43% · 3 games
Brewmasternofear
Brewmaster
Game 2prediction missed41:35
Nemiga Gaming 43%XactJlepbI 57%
The model gave 57% on XactJlepbI — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 58:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursatatakae
43% · 3 games55% · 16 games
Rikilightless
Riki
Invoker
InvokerAinkrad
57% · 3 games70% · 6 games
BatriderMagicaL
Batrider
Mars
MarsTheChosenOne
45% · 45 games70% · 8 games
Death ProphetFunn1k
Death Prophet
Omniknight
OmniknightLodine
little data64% · 10 games
RubickKingR
Rubick
24% · 11 games
Grimstrokenofear
Grimstroke
Game 3prediction correct21:37
Nemiga Gaming 46%XactJlepbI 54%
The model gave 54% on XactJlepbI — the game was taken by XactJlepbI in 44:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga Sirentatakae
63% · 4 games43% · 3 games
Phantom Assassinlightless
Phantom Assassin
Bristleback
BristlebackAinkrad
66% · 7 games46% · 17 games
PuckMagicaL
Puck
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld DestroyerTheChosenOne
52% · 7 games63% · 4 games
Nature's ProphetFunn1k
Nature's Prophet
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanLodine
47% · 31 game46% · 18 games
Earth SpiritKingR
Earth Spirit
55% · 7 games
Death Prophetnofear
Death Prophet
Model check result
Model favoriteXactJlepbI · 60%
Series resultXactJlepbI 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3