?
arrow_backBack to match
Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
89%11%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Yellow Submarineloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 27 games
74%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
so bad · 13 games
85%
Doom
Doomsignature
Corrupted · 13 games
62%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
v1olent- · 13 games
85%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Corrupted · 11 games
64%
Rubick
Rubick
Hellscream · 11 games
45%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
v1olent- · 11 games
64%
Techies
Techies
Hellscream · 10 games
40%

Yellow Submarine

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
rue · 4 games
0%
Sven
Svenoften banned
Satanic · 3 games
0%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
egxrdemxn · 2 games
0%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
aik · 2 games
0%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
rue · 2 games
50%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Satanic · 1 game
0%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
egxrdemxn · 1 game
0%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
pJonn · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
285 picks · 139 bans
44%
Pangolier
Pangolier
198 picks · 405 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
190 picks · 249 bans
49%
Dark Seer
Dark Seer
178 picks · 328 bans
52%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
178 picks · 256 bans
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
175 picks · 379 bans
50%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
172 picks · 103 bans
55%
Sven
Sven
170 picks · 245 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 38%
Hero pool strength67% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total89% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:13
Nemiga Gaming 76%Yellow Submarine 24%
The model gave 76% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 32:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
MuertaUlnit
53% · 33 games47% · 101 game
Naga SirenSatanic
Naga Siren
Beastmaster
BeastmasterXibbe
54% · 287 games46% · 253 games
DoompJonn
Doom
Earthshaker
EarthshakerMalr1ne
50% · 51 game51% · 46 games
Grimstrokerue
Grimstroke
Pugna
PugnaHellscream
55% · 91 game45% · 111 games
Lichaik
Lich
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritPanto
52% · 49 games
Game 2prediction correct39:19
Nemiga Gaming 75%Yellow Submarine 25%
The model gave 75% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 39:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinUlnit
51% · 55 games49% · 183 games
TerrorbladeSatanic
Terrorblade
Beastmaster
BeastmasterXibbe
56% · 210 games52% · 81 game
DawnbreakerpJonn
Dawnbreaker
Lone Druid
Lone DruidMalr1ne
58% · 14 games43% · 51 game
Grimstrokerue
Grimstroke
Enchantress
EnchantressPanto
51% · 108 games48% · 89 games
Phoenixaik
Phoenix
Bane
BaneHellscream
39% · 17 games
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 89%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2