Leon Masters #1 · BO2
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingloss 1:1series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Yellow Submarineloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nemiga Gaming
Crystal Maiden
aik · 20 games
Gyrocoptersignature
Lukas · 19 games
Tinyoften banned
queezy · 18 games
Rubick
queezy · 17 games
Batridersignature
aik · 13 games
Pangolieroften banned
nicky`cool · 13 games
Pugnasignature
queezy · 13 games
Lunasignature
v1olent- · 12 games
Yellow Submarine
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
emptiness · 31 game
Techies
rue · 28 games
Crystal Maiden
asdekor_r · 26 games
Pangolieroften banned
erase · 22 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
rue · 18 games
Lunasignature
Satanic · 17 games
Morphlingoften banned
Satanic · 17 games
Marsoften banned
emptiness · 16 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
445 picks · 682 bans
Gyrocopter
397 picks · 425 bans
Centaur Warrunner
394 picks · 522 bans
Crystal Maiden
392 picks · 180 bans
Rubick
338 picks · 169 bans
Pangolier
335 picks · 632 bans
Batrider
333 picks · 540 bans
Dragon Knight
333 picks · 786 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total51% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed41:16
Nemiga Gaming 50%Yellow Submarine 50%
The model gave 50% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 33:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos KnightLukas
GyrocopterSatanic
Timbersawnicky`cool
Brewmasterkasane
PangolierMikSa`
Tinyerase
Weaveraik
Clockwerkasdekor_r
Rubickjesv
Dark Willowrue
Game 2prediction missed16:31
Nemiga Gaming 51%Yellow Submarine 49%
The model gave 51% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 32:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaLukas
Troll WarlordSatanic
Tinynicky`cool
Pangoliererase
BeastmasterMikSa`
Underlordkasane
Weaverjesv
Phoenixasdekor_r
Batrideraik
Dark Willowrue
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 51%
Accuracy by game0 of 2