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European Pro League Season 28 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Yellow Submarineloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Jakiro
Jakiro
monodrama · 14 games
29%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
bashka · 10 games
20%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Covisnine · 9 games
67%
Windranger
Windranger
xsvampire · 8 games
25%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
young G · 7 games
43%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
bashka · 7 games
29%
Sven
Svenoften banned
bashka · 7 games
57%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
спортик · 6 games
50%

Yellow Submarine

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
bottega · 10 games
40%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 9 games
44%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Xakoda · 9 games
56%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
mrls · 9 games
67%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
mrls · 9 games
33%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
mrls · 8 games
63%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Xakoda · 8 games
38%
Axe
Axeoften banned
Infernal · 7 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
501 picks · 536 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
426 picks · 439 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
358 picks · 358 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
345 picks · 509 bans
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
330 picks · 711 bans
47%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
321 picks · 183 bans
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
301 picks · 441 bans
48%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
300 picks · 563 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 54%
Hero pool strength56% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Nemiga Gaming 40%Yellow Submarine 60%
The model gave 60% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine.
Game 2prediction missed
Nemiga Gaming 40%Yellow Submarine 60%
The model gave 60% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming.
Game 3prediction missed
Nemiga Gaming 40%Yellow Submarine 60%
The model gave 60% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming.
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 60%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3