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CIS Battle · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Zero Tenacityloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Jakiro
Jakiro
monodrama · 14 games
29%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Covisnine · 9 games
67%
Windranger
Windranger
xsvampire · 8 games
25%
Sven
Svenoften banned
bashka · 7 games
57%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
bashka · 7 games
14%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Covisnine · 6 games
33%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
monodrama · 6 games
33%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
young G · 6 games
50%

Zero Tenacity

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 25 games
52%
Puck
Pucksignature
Stojkov · 23 games
61%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Stojkov · 23 games
39%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Retsu · 21 game
52%
Sven
Svenoften banned
Nande · 21 game
33%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 20 games
30%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
Pablo · 20 games
55%
Rubick
Rubick
Pablo · 20 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
579 picks · 580 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
410 picks · 410 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
374 picks · 393 bans
47%
Pangolier
Pangolier
347 picks · 515 bans
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
337 picks · 204 bans
51%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
330 picks · 704 bans
45%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
323 picks · 611 bans
54%
Puck
Puck
315 picks · 783 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 52%
Hero pool strength54% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head0 – 5
Model total63% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:14
Nemiga Gaming 45%Zero Tenacity 55%
The model gave 55% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 41:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetbashka
51% · 177 games52% · 207 games
Templar AssassinMirage
Templar Assassin
Puck
Puckyoung G
56% · 261 game50% · 117 games
AbaddonNande
Abaddon
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiCovisnine
56% · 100 games42% · 181 game
Primal BeastNefrit
Primal Beast
Pugna
Pugnaxsvampire
45% · 175 games47% · 393 games
Batrideryamich
Batrider
Clockwerk
ClockwerkMary_y
58% · 260 games46% · 75 games
SilencerSe
Silencer
Game 2prediction correct6:34
Nemiga Gaming 43%Zero Tenacity 57%
The model gave 57% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 26:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
Svenbashka
43% · 70 games52% · 13 games
Anti-MageNande
Anti-Mage
Dazzle
DazzleCovisnine
54% · 34 games48% · 163 games
DawnbreakerNefrit
Dawnbreaker
Void Spirit
Void Spirityoung G
51% · 112 games51% · 300 games
PuckMirage
Puck
Tusk
Tuskxsvampire
44% · 284 games68% · 8 games
Pudgeyamich
Pudge
Pugna
PugnaMary_y
48% · 128 games60% · 144 games
EnchantressSe
Enchantress
Game 3prediction missed44:23
Nemiga Gaming 45%Zero Tenacity 55%
The model gave 55% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 37:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordbashka
48% · 30 games43% · 64 games
LifestealerNande
Lifestealer
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirityoung G
55% · 175 games56% · 134 games
InvokerMirage
Invoker
Underlord
UnderlordCovisnine
47% · 48 games46% · 42 games
SlardarNefrit
Slardar
Batrider
Batriderxsvampire
54% · 206 games50% · 204 games
Terrorbladeyamich
Terrorblade
Undying
UndyingMary_y
49% · 64 games46% · 79 games
SnapfireSe
Snapfire
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 63%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3