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DreamLeague Season 30. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:1
series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Zero Tenacitywin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
ariel · 30 games
50%
Techies
Techies
ariel · 23 games
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
Covisnine · 22 games
32%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
young G · 19 games
32%
Rubick
Rubick
ariel · 17 games
47%
Jakiro
Jakiro
VaniLLl · 16 games
38%
Puck
Puckoften banned
young G · 15 games
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
Covisnine · 13 games
46%

Zero Tenacity

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 25 games
68%
Bane
Banesignature
MoOz · 24 games
71%
Techies
Techiessignature
dEsire · 23 games
61%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
nesfeer · 23 games
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
dEsire · 22 games
36%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
dEsire · 22 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
raregods · 21 game
38%
Undying
Undyingsignature
MikSa` · 19 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
525 picks · 318 bans
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
441 picks · 211 bans
51%
Mirana
Mirana
391 picks · 177 bans
52%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
341 picks · 306 bans
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
328 picks · 505 bans
57%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
311 picks · 294 bans
53%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
288 picks · 514 bans
53%
Windranger
Windranger
278 picks · 138 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)30% vs 57%
Hero pool strength57% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head1 – 5
Model total77% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Nemiga Gaming 23%Zero Tenacity 77%
The model gave 77% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity.
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 77%
Series resultZero Tenacity 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1