Игры Будущего 2024 · BO3
result vs prediction
Neon Esportswin 2:0series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:0
beastcoastloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Neon Esports
Marsoften banned
JG · 11 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ken · 7 games
Pangolieroften banned
Ken · 7 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Ken · 7 games
Techiessignature
Bombi · 7 games
Dark Willow
PlayHard · 6 games
Hoodwink
Bombi · 6 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Bombi · 6 games
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
344 picks · 299 bans
Centaur Warrunner
325 picks · 509 bans
Vengeful Spirit
311 picks · 292 bans
Pangolier
263 picks · 362 bans
Magnus
253 picks · 443 bans
Phoenix
244 picks · 365 bans
Luna
243 picks · 221 bans
Techies
237 picks · 148 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% beastcoast
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:9
Neon Esports 53%beastcoast 47%
The model gave 53% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 35:08.
Game 2prediction correct33:12
Neon Esports 53%beastcoast 47%
The model gave 53% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 27:55.
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 53%
Series resultNeon Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2