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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — ЮВА 1-й дивизион · BO1
result vs prediction
Neon Esportswin 1:0
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 1:0
BOOM Esportsloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Neon Esports

Puck
Pucksignature
Yopaj · 22 games
68%
Mirana
Mirana
PlayHard · 16 games
56%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
PlayHard · 14 games
79%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
PlayHard · 13 games
54%
Sand King
Sand King
Yopaj · 13 games
54%
Tusk
Tusk
PlayHard · 13 games
54%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Yopaj · 12 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Skem · 11 games
55%

BOOM Esports

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Hyde · 9 games
44%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Hyde · 9 games
89%
Mars
Marssignature
Fbz · 8 games
63%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Khezcute · 7 games
57%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Khezcute · 6 games
67%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Mikoto · 6 games
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Mikoto · 5 games
40%
Io
Iooften banned
Dreamocel · 5 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
401 picks · 1013 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
376 picks · 607 bans
54%
Lion
Lion
375 picks · 193 bans
47%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
366 picks · 367 bans
48%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
316 picks · 502 bans
47%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
310 picks · 681 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
303 picks · 226 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
279 picks · 156 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 43%
Hero pool strength52% Neon Esports
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total66% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:15
Neon Esports 57%BOOM Esports 43%
The model gave 57% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 32:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingNatsumi
46% · 39 games52% · 54 games
Nature's ProphetFbz
Nature's Prophet
Broodmother
BroodmotherSkem
56% · 16 games50% · 22 games
SpectreDreamocel
Spectre
Sand King
Sand KingYopaj
47% · 19 games52% · 29 games
BristlebackMikoto
Bristleback
Mirana
MiranaPlayHard
47% · 57 games59% · 69 games
Nyx AssassinHyde
Nyx Assassin
Tusk
TuskJaunuel
45% · 73 games49% · 30 games
Treant ProtectorKhezcute
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 66%
Series resultNeon Esports 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1