Moon Studio Kagura Championship · BO5
result vs prediction
Neon Esportswin 3:1series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 3:1
Crocodileloss 1:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Neon Esports
Miranaoften banned
Skem · 3 games
Elder Titan
Jaunuel · 2 games
Puckoften banned
Yopaj · 2 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Yopaj · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
Yopaj · 1 game
Clockwerk
Skem · 1 game
Disruptor
Jaunuel · 1 game
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Skem · 1 game
Crocodile
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
61 picks · 135 bans
Puck
53 picks · 147 bans
Earth Spirit
51 picks · 41 bans
Void Spirit
47 picks · 86 bans
Phoenix
42 picks · 49 bans
Undying
41 picks · 63 bans
Monkey King
39 picks · 85 bans
Rubick
39 picks · 21 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)78% vs 64%
Hero pool strength59% Neon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:5
Neon Esports 60%Crocodile 40%
The model gave 60% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 20:33.
Game 2prediction correct33:14
Neon Esports 60%Crocodile 40%
The model gave 60% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 26:40.
Game 3prediction missed60:28
Neon Esports 60%Crocodile 40%
The model gave 60% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Crocodile in 43:19.
Game 4prediction correct45:21
Neon Esports 60%Crocodile 40%
The model gave 60% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 33:33.
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 60%
Series resultNeon Esports 3:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 4