Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — ЮВА 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Neon Esportswin 2:1series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Execrationloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Neon Esports
Mirana
Skem · 5 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Skem · 4 games
Sand Kingoften banned
PlayHard · 4 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
Natsumi · 4 games
Elder Titan
Jaunuel · 3 games
Grimstroke
Skem · 3 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Jaunuel · 3 games
Pangolieroften banned
PlayHard · 3 games
Execration
Marsoften banned
Rupido · 5 games
Batrideroften banned
Ken · 3 games
Medusaoften banned
Yowe · 3 games
Oracleoften banned
RR · 3 games
Dark Seeroften banned
Rupido · 2 games
Elder Titan
RR · 2 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ken · 2 games
Juggernautoften banned
Yowe · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
184 picks · 414 bans
Mars
172 picks · 314 bans
Earth Spirit
162 picks · 130 bans
Void Spirit
159 picks · 228 bans
Phoenix
137 picks · 154 bans
Keeper of the Light
128 picks · 214 bans
Nyx Assassin
122 picks · 412 bans
Rubick
119 picks · 64 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)85% vs 50%
Hero pool strength57% Neon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total81% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:6
Neon Esports 68%Execration 32%
The model gave 68% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 25:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll WarlordNatsumi
MorphlingYowe
Death ProphetYopaj
Void SpiritKen
TuskPlayHard
TidehunterRupido
PuckSkem
Nyx AssassinRR
AbaddonJaunuel
Game 2prediction missed20:44
Neon Esports 70%Execration 30%
The model gave 70% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Execration in 47:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll WarlordNatsumi
Storm SpiritKen
Queen of PainYopaj
BristlebackYowe
ViperPlayHard
PangolierRupido
Nature's ProphetJaunuel
Keeper of the LightRR
Void SpiritSkem
Game 3prediction correct35:6
Neon Esports 69%Execration 31%
The model gave 69% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 22:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll WarlordNatsumi
Wraith KingYowe
Ember SpiritYopaj
Void SpiritKen
PangolierPlayHard
TimbersawRupido
TuskSkem
OracleRR
Keeper of the LightJaunuel
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 81%
Series resultNeon Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3