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The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Neon Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Execrationwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Neon Esports

Mirana
Miranasignature
PlayHard · 27 games
67%
Puck
Pucksignature
Yopaj · 23 games
65%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
PlayHard · 20 games
60%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Yopaj · 20 games
60%
Tusk
Tusk
Jaunuel · 16 games
56%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Skem · 14 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
PlayHard · 14 games
79%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Yopaj · 14 games
57%

Execration

Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Yowe · 15 games
47%
Mars
Marssignature
Rupido · 13 games
62%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
RR · 11 games
73%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Palos · 9 games
44%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
RR · 8 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Yowe · 8 games
38%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Force · 7 games
57%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Yowe · 7 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
462 picks · 191 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
374 picks · 207 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
367 picks · 588 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
362 picks · 879 bans
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
336 picks · 305 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
324 picks · 244 bans
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
312 picks · 435 bans
57%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
295 picks · 403 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 54%
Hero pool strength55% Neon Esports
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total56% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:43
Neon Esports 53%Execration 47%
The model gave 53% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 1:07:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautNatsumi
56% · 99 games44% · 44 games
SpectrePalos
Spectre
Batrider
BatriderYopaj
51% · 37 games51% · 41 game
RazorYowe
Razor
Doom
DoomEnryu
57% · 46 games48% · 59 games
ViperForce
Viper
Enchantress
EnchantressSkem
45% · 74 games52% · 163 games
PhoenixRR
Phoenix
Rubick
RubickJaunuel
45% · 51 game
Game 2prediction missed33:42
Neon Esports 54%Execration 46%
The model gave 54% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Execration in 45:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinNatsumi
55% · 35 games49% · 44 games
LunaPalos
Luna
Void Spirit
Void SpiritYopaj
44% · 173 games49% · 305 games
PuckYowe
Puck
Batrider
BatriderEnryu
47% · 53 games54% · 61 game
ViperForce
Viper
Enchantress
EnchantressSkem
53% · 96 games57% · 35 games
Treant ProtectorRR
Treant Protector
Rubick
RubickJaunuel
45% · 88 games
Game 3prediction missed24:38
Neon Esports 51%Execration 49%
The model gave 51% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Execration in 55:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingNatsumi
49% · 74 games49% · 68 games
LifestealerPalos
Lifestealer
Lina
LinaYopaj
50% · 61 game56% · 94 games
LeshracYowe
Leshrac
Slardar
SlardarEnryu
50% · 18 games50% · 64 games
DoomForce
Doom
Viper
ViperJaunuel
45% · 38 games55% · 72 games
Winter WyvernRR
Winter Wyvern
Lion
LionSkem
44% · 107 games
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 56%
Series resultExecration 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3