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Elite League Season 2 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Neon Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Execrationwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Neon Esports

Mars
Marsoften banned
JG · 20 games
40%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Bombi · 15 games
40%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
JG · 11 games
73%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Ken · 10 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Ken · 10 games
50%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernsignature
Bombi · 10 games
70%
Techies
Techiessignature
Bombi · 9 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ken · 8 games
38%

Execration

Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Shanks · 8 games
13%
Techies
Techies
Shanks · 8 games
38%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Shanks · 7 games
57%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
cml · 7 games
71%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Bob · 6 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Bob · 6 games
33%
Razor
Razorsignature
Abat · 6 games
83%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Tino- · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
416 picks · 617 bans
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
370 picks · 389 bans
51%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
367 picks · 143 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
360 picks · 469 bans
55%
Rubick
Rubick
317 picks · 158 bans
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
316 picks · 341 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
316 picks · 578 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
315 picks · 648 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% Neon Esports
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total53% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed39:31
Neon Esports 51%Execration 49%
The model gave 51% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Execration in 46:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaCije
48% · 83 games56% · 69 games
Troll WarlordAbat
Troll Warlord
Pangolier
PangolierKen
49% · 295 games51% · 214 games
Centaur WarrunnerTino-
Centaur Warrunner
Underlord
UnderlordJG
55% · 45 games53% · 163 games
Crystal Maidencml
Crystal Maiden
Phoenix
Phoenixdalul
46% · 225 games45% · 202 games
TinyShanks
Tiny
Game 2prediction correct48:49
Neon Esports 51%Execration 49%
The model gave 51% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 54:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckKen
46% · 104 games50% · 189 games
WeaverAbat
Weaver
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightCije
53% · 56 games49% · 136 games
RazorTino-
Razor
Pangolier
PangolierJG
46% · 156 games56% · 61 game
PudgeShanks
Pudge
Dark Willow
Dark Willowdalul
45% · 141 game57% · 71 game
Elder Titancml
Elder Titan
Game 3prediction missed18:33
Neon Esports 51%Execration 49%
The model gave 51% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Execration in 33:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyCije
46% · 176 games46% · 151 game
RazorAbat
Razor
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainKen
55% · 45 games55% · 90 games
EnigmaTino-
Enigma
Pangolier
PangolierJG
46% · 184 games56% · 60 games
MarciShanks
Marci
Dark Willow
Dark Willowdalul
46% · 127 games53% · 231 game
Crystal Maidencml
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 53%
Series resultExecration 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3