Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — ЮВА 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Neon Esportsloss 0:2series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Fnaticwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Neon Esports
Pucksignature
Yopaj · 20 games
Mirana
PlayHard · 14 games
Pangoliersignature
PlayHard · 14 games
Tusk
PlayHard · 13 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Yopaj · 12 games
Elder Titansignature
Jaunuel · 11 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Skem · 11 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
PlayHard · 11 games
Fnatic
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
407 picks · 992 bans
Mars
348 picks · 571 bans
Void Spirit
343 picks · 524 bans
Grimstroke
336 picks · 350 bans
Lion
325 picks · 177 bans
Death Prophet
323 picks · 700 bans
Tusk
302 picks · 222 bans
Earth Spirit
266 picks · 278 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 57%
Hero pool strength57% Neon Esports
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total61% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:25
Neon Esports 61%Fnatic 39%
The model gave 61% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Fnatic in 27:17.
Game 2prediction missed9:28
Neon Esports 61%Fnatic 39%
The model gave 61% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Fnatic in 30:09.
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 61%
Series resultFnatic 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2