Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. ЮВА. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Neon Esportswin 2:0series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Hopeloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Neon Esports
Snapfire
Hated · 7 games
Tusk
PlayHard · 6 games
Undyingoften banned
Se · 6 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Enryu · 5 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
FortuneSoul · 5 games
Chenoften banned
Se · 5 games
Crystal Maiden
Hated · 4 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Enryu · 4 games
Hope
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
749 picks · 472 bans
Tusk
531 picks · 454 bans
Tiny
530 picks · 387 bans
Treant Protector
528 picks · 577 bans
Nature's Prophet
408 picks · 593 bans
Snapfire
385 picks · 261 bans
Death Prophet
374 picks · 623 bans
Ember Spirit
351 picks · 747 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 57%
Hero pool strength55% Hope
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct50:9
Neon Esports 55%Hope 45%
The model gave 55% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 25:11.
Game 2prediction correct
Neon Esports 55%Hope 45%
The model gave 55% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports.
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 55%
Series resultNeon Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2