Neon Esports vs IHC Esports — prediction DPC2S2ЮЗО · Dota 2

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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. ЮВА. Закрытые отборочные · BO3

result vs prediction

Neon Esportsloss 0:2

series probability

57%43%

probability at match start · final 0:2

IHC Esportswin 2:0

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Neon Esports

Silencersignature

Hated · 6 games

67%

Snapfire

Hated · 6 games

33%

Tusk

PlayHard · 6 games

17%

Beastmasteroften banned

Enryu · 5 games

60%

Bloodseekeroften banned

FortuneSoul · 5 games

60%

Shadow Fiendoften banned

FortuneSoul · 5 games

40%

Undyingoften banned

Se · 5 games

20%

Chenoften banned

Se · 4 games

50%

IHC Esports

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Rubick

787 picks · 537 bans

51%

Tiny

562 picks · 400 bans

52%

Tusk

532 picks · 437 bans

48%

Treant Protector

527 picks · 573 bans

56%

Nature's Prophet

436 picks · 711 bans

56%

Death Prophet

404 picks · 793 bans

50%

Snapfire

402 picks · 293 bans

45%

Ember Spirit

363 picks · 842 bans

49%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)44% vs 70%

Hero pool strength53% IHC Esports

Head-to-head1 – 0

Model total57% Neon Esports

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction missed13:38

Neon Esports 53%IHC Esports 47%

The model gave 53% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by IHC Esports in 32:54.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo