OB.Moon Asian Arena · BO2
result vs prediction
Neon Esportswin 2:0series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MYM Yloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Neon Esports
Miranasignature
PlayHard · 27 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
PlayHard · 27 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Skem · 23 games
Sand Kingoften banned
Yopaj · 21 game
Tusk
Jaunuel · 19 games
Puckoften banned
Yopaj · 18 games
Leshracsignature
Enryu · 15 games
Lion
Jaunuel · 15 games
M Y
Terrorbladeoften banned
KNP · 2 games
Brewmaster
LionaX · 1 game
Clockwerk
LionaX · 1 game
Disruptor
LionaX · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
Beebie · 1 game
Juggernautoften banned
KNP · 1 game
Lunaoften banned
KNP · 1 game
Puckoften banned
Beebie · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
388 picks · 168 bans
Hoodwink
352 picks · 127 bans
Dragon Knight
267 picks · 348 bans
Nyx Assassin
260 picks · 524 bans
Lina
250 picks · 406 bans
Winter Wyvern
250 picks · 242 bans
Luna
246 picks · 325 bans
Puck
237 picks · 541 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 43%
Hero pool strength52% Neon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:16
Neon Esports 62%M Y 38%
The model gave 62% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 32:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LinaMikoto
SvenKNP
Slark458
DoomBeebie
Pangolierxiaoyu154
Winter WyvernMyPro
RubickNARMAN
OmniknightLionaX
Shadow DemonJaunuel
Game 2prediction correct40:18
Neon Esports 62%M Y 38%
The model gave 62% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 28:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver458
Templar AssassinBeebie
Storm SpiritMikoto
Monkey KingKNP
Night Stalkerxiaoyu154
LionMyPro
MiranaNARMAN
BrewmasterLionaX
BaneJaunuel
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 74%
Series resultNeon Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2